I specialized in political science and economics at university. I like those areas of study, but it was also the degree program that allowed the greatest number of electives. I have diverse interests. I wanted to study many of the things on offer at university.
A little knowledge isn’t nearly enough.
One of the first poli-sci papers I wrote was about the now-former Yugoslavia. I posited that in the absence of the Soviet threat, the state would soon collapse into conflict. It was too internally diverse, there was too little cohesion, and too much “neighbourly” enmity.
The collapse of communism and the corresponding economic hardship in Eastern Europe created interesting times.
I did well on the paper, though one of the comments was that perhaps I was being too “doom and gloom” in my outlook.
And then came the separations, and the wars, and the violence and ethnic cleansing. One of the problems with being correct in political science is that the negative outcomes you’ve been positing affect real people.
Which is a lot of words to say, I expected the election outcome in the United States on November 5, 2024. It is a horrifying outcome – nothing goes well when religious fundamentalism and libertarian economics is running the ship – but I’ve been predicting that Trump and the GOP would take things for quite some time.
That’s not to say I’m not gutted. That’s not to say I’ve not been in a depressed fog this week. When the universe shifts, when the idea of America as a bastion of freedom and democracy slides right to embrace instead theocratic kleptocracy, I think one is allowed to take a few beats to grieve.
The Republican Party played a long game. Pain and hardship are coming for the United States. It will be interesting to see how things play out after the inauguration. Trump is, of course, merely a figurehead.
Things are going to get bad – men have been sharing, “your body, my choice” responses all over social media since the US re-elected a rapist and sexual predator. There was even a t-shirt on Amazon. And libertarian economics help only the wealthy. Too bad people didn’t believe the Republicans when they talked about sending retirees back to work.
As Republican nastiness was emboldened over the last few years in the US, and as Christian Nationalism started writing laws, Americans started saying things like, “We have to push back, run for office, and make changes to the Supreme Court.” People talked about it the world over, how to fix what was going wrong.
I was corrected regularly when I suggested it might be too late to change course. What the world has been observing in the US since 2020 is the end game, not the opening moves. People are too eager to discount the evidence of their eyes and ears.
One of the big problems when it comes to identifying problems is human nature. Frogs don’t actually stay in pots slowly heating up to a boil, but we sure do. People tend to assume that bad things only happen to other people far away.
I’m often told I’m hyperbolic. It’s funny – the people who say things like that to me never walk their comments back when I’m right.
Sexism is a hell of a drug. Especially when it’s married to religion.
From Famine to Feast. 
I remember reading a piece by Michael Moore (that unfortunately I can’t seem to find), who predicted that Trump was going to win the 2016 elections long before Trump was even considered a viable Republican candidate, when people were even dismissing the possibility he’ll even get to be a candidate. Most of his reasoning wasn’t based on what Trump had to offer – but rather on what democrats weren’t offering.
On the other hand (and on the more optimistic side), looking back on the US presidential elections for the past few decades, it looks as though both parties have had their fair share of presidents and presidencies.
And in the past 24 years, the only two times that Republican presidents won both the elections and the popular votes were President Bush Jr. in 2004, and Trump in 2024. In all other elections, even when the Republicans won – they lost the popular vote.
And being Trump’s second term, it should be his last, right? So that’s good, as long as he doesn’t cancel any future elections, or start WW3 by mishandling the situation in the Middle East.
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History is a strong predicator of the future, except when it isn’t. The Republican Party is aware they’ve lost the popular vote, and that it won’t come back unless they pivot.
They won’t pivot, what they’re doing instead is changing the system. Don’t take talk of reducing access to voting too lightly.
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I am aware of the fact that access to voting has been hard for certain demographics for decades, and those demographics are often the ones which will be most affected (for the worse) by Republican policies.
The situation on the Middle East shouldn’t be taken lightly either. Biden and Harris have been working really hard on limiting the war and attempting to prevent it from becoming regional – which raises a risk of it becoming the next World War.
This reminds me of a couple of made for TV movies made in the mid 1980’s at the height of the cold war. The American movie is called “The Day After”, while the British counterpart was named “Threads”.
In both movies, a small local issue in the Middle East starts escalating, and eventually leads to a nuclear exchange between the US and the USSR. The results were so horrific that “Threads” is still considered by many to be the scariest movie ever made. “The Day After” was a little less pessimistic, but still scary enough so that after President Reagan watched it, it changed his mind about Nuclear War and he started trying to ease the tensions with the USSR.
So it’s scary to think how much harm Trump can cause in such a sensitive situation, where Russia is also involved – and both Israel and Iran possibly have nuclear weapons.
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I like Threads better. We watched the Day After at school. Worst assembly ever.
It is scary to contemplate where we are, historically.
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“Like” is the wrong button for this one. You’re spot on, and I agree, but the thing keeping me awake at night is how to try and stop the same thing happening here in Canada. We have a Far-right, unqualified, suspiciously wealthy (with no visible means of support) candidate who is running on divisive and hate-filled slogans (not policies – they never have POLICIES, the never want to FIX anything, except nebulous ideas, like “immigration” and “the economy”. What’s the issue with those? Oh, you know, stuff! They’re taking our jobs AND living on Welfare! The Economy is terrible, look at the gas prices and food prices (which are not government controlled….) This guy won’t even submit to the standard security check for a party leader. He has refused it, and people are just shrugging and saying “Hey, what a character!” That should be a major red flag! It should be exclusionary! Just like TFG refusing to release his taxes, or his educational transcripts, there’s a goddam reason. Anyway, I’m sorry for your loss. America has never been the country it pretends to be, but it always had the capacity to get better.
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Social media needs an acknowledgment reaction. I agree, much I “like” isn’t really an expression of affection.
Yeah, we’re in trouble in Canada too. Pierre Poilievre is a wholly unqualified lifer who believes in libertarian economics. And, you’re correct, the Reform-CPC embraces connections with very questionable groups.
In addition to regularly meeting up with domestic terrorists, they’re a member of the IDU. I don’t like it that a national party has an extra-national affiliation, especially to Stephen Harper’s group. And agreed, the “no clearance” is a problem. Because, if elected, he gets it and we don’t find out why it was a bad idea.
But I’ve obsessed a bit over the US these last nine years because as goes America, so do we trend. We see it in Alberta with Danielle Smith. For what is the UCP if not MAGA?
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Sadly, I understand and believe you are correct. America has been on a downward trend for decades. Most Americans are too selfish, don’t care about anyone but themselves, and don’t check facts. They want to believe all the lies about their quick fixes. They also are brain-washed and living in fear.
So now, what do the rest of us do? Where can we go?
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Those are tough questions. Usually when we’re faced with a country in political distress as the US currently is, it’s “over there.” We’re not so used to this kind of thing in North America. I think much will depend on where one is living as to how much pain people experience early on. For instance, if the incoming government holds true to the promise of rounding up migrants, improper immigrants, and denaturalizing, states that are agriculture-based are going to be in big trouble.
It’s not so easy as some people on social media like to imagine to just leave one’s place.
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Believe me, it was a gut punch for a lot of us here in the US. I had foolishly started believing that we were better than this and a majority of us would do the right thing to rid ourselves of this character once and for all. Obviously, I was wrong and now this is where we are, but I’m determined we do not have to roll over and “die” we can do all we can to keep this democracy going. Will we be successful…I don’t know but we have to try.
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I’m sorry ❤️
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We can do nothing now, but see how the next four years play out. I hope your prediction is wrong, but I fear it isn’t. :(
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I am very sorry. We have our own little Maple MAGA movement going as well 😢
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Ugh.
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